5-Star
There are many various patterns that each different account has.
By learning to identify these patterns and when they typically drop, you can predict when to expect your next 5-star.
Standard Banner (Wanderlust Invocation) has 0.6% 5★ rate, 74 soft pity, 90 hard pity. Patterns emerge from history—early luck (20-60 pulls), consistent late (75-90), or streaks. Track yours to predict next 5★ (standard weapons 50/50; fate carries).
How to Identify:
- View history (Paimon → History).
- Note last 10 5★ pulls.
- Average range → your pattern.
- Tool: Pity Simulator – input history for prediction.
Pro Tip: Lose 50/50 to standard weapon? Next banner guarantees featured 5★ (fate carries).
F2P Math: Save 2 patches (~18k Gems) for 1x 5★ avg. Patterns help time pulls.
3 by 3 Pattern
Most players would pity at 80 - 90.
Some luckier ones would hit soft pity at around 76.
But today I found someone who got a 3 by 3 pattern, and always ended with early pity.
Let's get a breakdown on how it happened [emoji]
(*For privacy reasons, I will not be revealing their identity, please respect that 🙏)
Now, they did not record each of their pity exactly (except for the most recent one), so I will do an estimated calculation for research purposes.
Let's assume they've been playing for 300 days.
300 ÷ 30 = 10 months x 10 acquainted fates = 100 fates
Assuming they have 30 characters, that's an additional 30 - 50 more fates.
That's a total of about 150 acquainted fates.
(*Assuming they don't use primo on Standard Banner)
Estimated Pity:
1. Skyward Blade (30)
2. Jade Spear (18)
3. Skyward Harp (20)
4. Diluc (40)
5. Jean (24)
6. Qiqi (18)
It's definitely of some extreme lucky account, but I am interested to see if this unique pattern will be consistent in the future. I've never seen a case like this before, but if you/someone you know also have this pattern, I'd be interested in collecting data for further research ^ o ^
1 by 1 Pattern
The most common expectancy so to have 5☆ Weapon and Character come alternately.
Though sometimes when you're lucky, you can hit pity early, in which case the 5☆ typically will follow the same category as previous drop (if before is weapon → then next is weapon again).
For example, in this example below, since the previous 5☆ is Aquila (at soft pity), then the next early pity is also a Weapon because it follows the category of its predecessor.
Using this as an example, I can predict that the next 5☆ will definitely be a Weapon. Else it hits early pity, in which case it will be a Character.
If you have a much more extensive Standard Banner history, it will also help you to predict the next drop better. If you need any help predicting, feel free to message me with your drop history ^ o ^
If your account does not fall under any of these commonly-known patterns,
try to identity any existing pattern your records have.
If you haven't done much pulls on your standard banner.
it's good to keep record on your pattern and compare notes to future drop rates ٩(^ᴗ^)۶
4-Star
Based on this example, the 4-star pity typically comes on hard pity (9 or 10).
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