I suggest there are broadly three types of prophecy in Teyvat, but are these divisions real or just arbitrary?
- misuses of the word 'prophecy' on things which are not predictions, but mere rumor or story
- short term predictions about individual behaviors - which can be changed by those individuals, or by gods
- long term statements about the fate of Teyvat - which can be changed by Descenders
Since Teyvat has a fate system, somehow all the contradictions of determinism and prophecy in a real world system can be ignored and we can assume that accurate predictions of the future are not only possible but... fairly routine and simple for people who have the right skills. Up to a point. But it feels like there's a two tier system in play. On the one hand Mona's GAA2 story has a lot of examples of her using her talents as an Astrologist in an every day way to help people.
Mona: "When is my missing son going to be found?"
Mona: "Do they love me or not?"
Mona: "Will I ever recover?"
But she also says Astrology has a deeper use, on a more fundamental level, but she rarely mentions it:
Mona: I believe that astrology is a valuable discipline, and that it is capable of revealing the inner workings of this universe
With the individual style of prediction it seems that Mona believes the fate of the individual can and ought to be changed slightly by the use of Astrology. She does not consider this use as a way to avoid fate, but rather to fix fate back on the right track somehow. If this opportunity is ignored, then the predicted fate is 100% likely. So, for the individual, prediction is associated with a choice to correct fate slightly. It is not mere determinism, but it can become deterministic.
Mona: I once met an adventurer on a mountain who also happened to be picking fruits. He was even kind enough to share some with me. So, in return, I agreed to perform a divination for him. The results were terrifying. I advised him to give up adventuring as soon as possible, otherwise he could meet his end within the next two years. He fell silent for a while. Surprisingly, he didn't doubt the results of my divination like others had, but he looked quite perplexed.
"Even so... I have to keep going. Adventurers can't just give up in the face of hardship."
Mona: With that, he picked up his pack and headed for the peak.
Xinyan: So uh, Mona, is that adventurer... dead now?
Mona: ...
Mona: That was the only time I ever saw him. And that was more than three years ago, which means... he's no longer alive.
Paimon: But isn't there still a chance that he's alive? You know, like maybe you just made a mistake?
Traveler: But that's not fair.
Mona: You can't call it divination if you reject anything bad and believe the good unreservedly. That's just self-deception.
This epi.sode seems to bother Mona. It feels like she definitely thinks the adventurer ought to have taken her advice and quit adventuring. She doesn't take the attitude that it's that person's choice and they should live their own life and it's not her business after all. But within the GAA2 story she seems to come to terms with these feelings and admit to herself that there was nothing she could do to save that adventurer beyond the choice she presented and they rejected. I think this is the passage expressing this idea:
Mona: "You should not get confused. If you should become confused one day, not even astrology will be able to help you then."
Mona: That's what the old hag said. We astrologists can't predict our own fate.
Mona: But today, those words seem to carry a different meaning.
Mona: I understand now that people won't always follow a beacon's guiding light. Even though the way forward may be dark and dangerous, they will still resolutely forge ahead.
Mona: Fate is called such precisely because it cannot be altered or reversed.
Mona: I understand the governing laws of the universe, and have glimpsed secrets between heaven and earth. Observing it is enough for me, there's no need to force it to change.
When she says "fate cannot be altered or reversed" in this case what she means is that she can't force the choice upon the adventurer. The old hag's warning comes to her mind. At the time the old hag said this it was a warning against trying to scry herself in order to change her own fate. That's taboo. Mona says it can't be done (although ironically we see her scrying her own constellation a few times in-game so does she really believe this? or is she pushing the boundaries?) But in the GAA2 story she sees the hag's advice has a second meaning; namely that she can't force people to use her prophecies to make a choice to return to the right path in some sense. That individual has that choice but not Mona.
Note that the idea that an astrologer cannot predict their own fate ties in with the idea that someone operating Irminsul cannot change their own fate by causing their own death.
Mona: As your stars move across the sky, they record all your life events in their path. And among all the people in the world, a considerable number will see their stars deviate from their path. When your stars are on track, it means you will be healthy, happy, and at peace. Conversely, if your stars go off track, everything will get worse. The starry sky in my divinations would never look as perfect as this. Some stars would lose their way, and others would fall...
Mona: ...I wish everyone could be happy, and stay on track.
Mona: To this end, I offer advice and tell the truth.
Mona: I know it's useless. All fates are already revealed in the night sky, with mine, too, just another among them. I can't change anything. Even so... outside of astrology, outside of the words of truth, I still cling to the wisp of an irrational fantasy. We must all live within the confines of reality, but... call me presumptuous, but I still believe in miracles. In this vast sea of stars, there are stars for you, for me, for everybody. What are the chances of one star encountering another? Are these encounters not the most wonderful miracles in all of destiny? ...I don't know. But within Teyvat, the stars in the sky will always have a place for us. Even if astrology is resolutely rational, fate remains arbitrary, cruel, but romantic.
Now it could be read that Mona is saying the adventurer had no choice to give up adventuring because his fate was 100% determined. But that's a very pessimistic interpretation that essentially makes her use of astrology to be pointless and cruel. It makes Mona into a Cassandra figure who is doomed to go around warning people of their fate and always be ignored. But that outcome is a result of Cassandra being cursed by Apollo. I don't get a sense that Mona's character is supposed to be similar. Also it ignores what she says about "stars deviating from their path". How would that be possible if everything was deterministic at this level of the individual? If fate can deviate from it's true path maybe it can also be "corrected" and this correction doesn't count (in Mona's mind) as changing fate or defying fate.
As a result it's possible that in Teyvat prophecy is linked with a possibility of changing fate. At least at this individual level.
-------------------------------------
As to the first type of "prophecy" Mona says there's a lot of bogus fortune tellers that are just for amusement. For example the fortune telling at the Grand Narukami Shrine site.
Mona: I don't usually say things like this, but while we're on the topic, I really hope you don't confuse astrology with those fortune stick peddlers that you see along the streets.
-------------------------------------
Per Nicole and the whole Irminsul debate we get the idea that minor changes or vibrations of fate are possible, although perhaps only a god can affect Irminsul this way, but even so these changes are small. The butterfly effect does not occur. Small changes do NOT get amplified into much larger changes, but rather even if a change is made it almost seems as if fate tries to reproduce as closely as possible the same set of events. ie Even if Scaramouche is no longer present the blacksmiths end up dead anyway, and so on.
Nicole: Unfortunately, the fate of Teyvat cannot easily be changed. Perhaps a god may have a slim chance, but for anyone else... who can say. When a small animal runs into a tree trunk, though the tree may sway, it is not displaced. The same is true of fate. Like a vase that falls to the ground. Whether it is broken by a cat or by a bird, the result is still a broken vase, is it not?
-------------------------------------
With this framework let's look at some prophecies and guess if they are immutable big scale predictions or not.
3 Enkanomiyan prophecies:
Hydrological Studies in Byakuyakoku mentions some prophecies about Aberaku and the Helios which are so old they have already had the events predicted come to pass. Could this prophecy have been avoided? It's hard to say. This is much more than a prophecy about an individual but at the same time is it big enough to count as a world fate order of prophecy? Were this prophecy to be evaded, would this be a tree swaying or a tree displaced kind of thing? My guess is displaced but we can't tell.
The earliest name of this place was "Helios," and it was the high tower built by the sage Aberaku, standing for earth, the element between wind and water. According to prophecy, this was likely the sun that the sage displayed, used to light those lightless caverns. And just as those prophecies suggested, it was also later used to cast a great shadow over the nation.
From the 5th of the Byakuyakoku books there was a prophecy that the people of Enkonomiya would move to the surface. Was this really a prophecy at all and not merely Orobashi's promise? Could this fate have been reversed? And if so would it be a swaying or a displacement? My guess is displacement again.
After Byakuyakoku fell into the ocean depths, these animals died out within two generations due to a lack of habitable land and food. Since the arrival of Watatsumi Omikami, some of us have returned to the sea's surface to build a home and interact with the people there. Therefore, we have been able to review the names of these animals. According to the Vassal and the Omikami's prophecy, we shall all move back to the sea's surface someday, so it is important to get these names right.
Leaving the most famous to the last. Btw all three of these prophecies date from the time of Orobashi, but only the last one describes itself as a prophecy "of old". How old? Before Orobashi? Who exactly is making these prophecies? We know humans can do this stuff, so it seems gods could too. Could this prophecy date as far back as the Ancient Civilization? And when the researchers say, "We must not let this thing happen in Enkanomiya" is that an attempt to defy fate? Or is it just that the prophecy doesn't say where it takes place and the researchers hope it doesn't mean Enkanomoya? Once again we're not told but this seems more like a "displaced" than a "sway" to change.
According to a prophecy of old, the Dragon of Water, the ancient lord of vishaps, will definitely descend in the form of a human.
-------------------------------------
5 Deshret era prophecies
Liloupar makes some predictions about her kids to get revenge on her husband. Is this even a real prophecy or her statement that she intends to get "revenge" on her husband? At any rate, though it involves important people like kings and a princess, this feels like a personal fate that could have been avoided. Sway.
First, that Shirin would fall in love with a great hero, and the progeny of their union would surpass their father. Second, that many of Shirin's relatives would enjoy a sweet end, and third, that Shirin alone would be given possession of her father's kingdom.
On the other hand in as much as Liloupar predicts the fate of Gurabad that feels like an unavoidable outcome involving the Abyss. There's not really a quotation of this prophecy beyond a short mention in the fictional rendition of The Tale of Shiruyeh and Shirin that there will be "an ill omen upon the king's land". Displacement?
The Elemental Being: Floating Hydro Fungus in Nahida's story quest says this (to Nahida):
You might not remember, but this is a prophecy that we deeply believe in... That the Lord of Dendro will bring us home once the catastrophe comes to an end.
This one's hard to say. Is this just a small change that could be nudged along. Or does the ending where Apep gets healed mean that this is an important part of the fate of Teyvat? It might even not be a real prophecy at all but just a hope that the Dendro Archo will fulfil the promise that was made. I think I'd guess with sway here.
The remaining two prophecies are the Goddess of Flowers predicting things. Firstly she predicts her own and Deshret's death if he goes ahead with his goal of digging up Forbidden Knowledge. On the one hand this fate seems integral to the fate of Teyvat. On the other hand is this even a prophecy at all and not just an educated guess and a warning? Isn't this just an individual's choice, albeit a god? Can't Irminsul figure out how to bring FK back to Teyvat some other way if Deshret made a different choice?
Heed my warnings: seek not the Master of the Four Shades, and inquire not of the mysteries of the sky and the abyss.
Otherwise, as shown by the nail of retribution, certain calamity and sorrow shall follow.
We're told, in the cup of that artifact set, and in language that sounds a lot like Mona's way of speaking, that the Goddess of Flowers had predicted Deshret's response to her warnings:
It had been within her calculus — something long foreseen
So this feels very heavy stuff but I would also like to feel even Teyvat's system allows for an individual to at time make a choice. So would this have taken a sway or a displacement sized event to prevent or alter? I'll guess sway.
The last prophecy I'll consider from Deshret's time is the Goddess of Flowers foresight of the Cataclysm itself. We don't have a text for this but it's apparent from what's stated in the whole business with Khvarena and Simurgh. This is definitely a displacement size of importance but these events may also be tied up with the 3rd Descender and if that's true then whoever the 3rd Descender is they may well have changed even such a big event from what was "supposed" to happen. If so did they change fate to create the Cataclysm? or to try to prevent it? Goddess of Flowers speaking to "Simurgh" (or herself):
I once encountered a faceless nightmare in my dreams, and it frightened me to no end.
And so I separated you from my body, and I ask you now to prevent that nightmare's coming.
-------------------------------------
1 Sal Vindagnyr prophecy
The Princess of Sal Vindagnyr was believed to have had a gift for prophecy, although in the end it failed her. Her father set her the task of changing the future through her prophetic gift. This was part of a three strand strategy to save the city with the head priest (her father) trying to contact Celestia and the outlander, Imunlaukr set off to find answers from ... well somewhere else... possibly the Abyss. The princess' job is to force another prophecy perhaps to allow a change of fate as if it were a mere personal or small change along the lines of Mona telling the adventurer to quit. But this and the other two strategies fail. Definitely a displacement event then, which we know because they failed. But that was pretty obvious anyway since it's a large scale prediction involving the Cataclysm (the Durin prophecy I mean).
-------------------------------------
3 Remurian and Fontaine prophecies
Well I'm almost out of time here so to cut it short some say that Mona's constellation names look a lot stuff that happened to Remuria. Well I don't know about that but she has "Prophecy of Submersion" and "Prophecy of Oblivion". These may correspond to the prophecies about Remuria being flooded and being sunk into the Abyss (separately). As predictions about the fate of an entire empire and close to being the fate of an entire nation (of the seven nations), these were probably unavoidable. But who knows? It's a little like king Deshret's choice. Or for that matter the Adventurer in Mona's story.
And lastly we have Egeria's prophecy that the waters will rise and the people of Fontaine will be dissolved. By the way the title of the third part of chapter IV act II Archon quest is "When All Return to the Waters" so I guess the prediction might also involve the element of a "return" to the primordial sea waters, suggesting that the people of Fontaine came from those waters originally in some sense, like the rest of the Light realm population but unlike the Human realm creatures that are doomed to become "dross" (or "detritus" or "sublimate") floating on the surface of the waters. But how is it possible to change the very nature of a creature (let alone so many people) so that they can "fool" the primordial sea waters into thinking that they are "pure" enough to be dissolved and not mere dross?
A dense and pure solution, derived and refined from drops of the vast primordial sea. The ancient God King once believed it would bring eternal life and infinite wisdom, but listening carefully— it was quietly, faintly prophesizing the final end of all dissolving into one.
This was once the God King's unfinished Grand Symphony — a boundless, sourceless golden Ichor replacing the wild primeval waters, and the glorious immortal sages bringing nectar-like enlightenment to the ignorant corners of the world.
But the God King's delusions ultimately sank into the depths of the black abyss, and with the ravages of time, the golden Ichor was eventually corroded by the primordial soup...
Golden Goblet of the Pristine Sea
Legends say that before the birth of life, there was a dense primordial sea. It is the purest origin of all things, and one day, it will also swallow all life... and those things which did not arise from it will be filtered out, becoming naught but floating detritus.
"The existence of detritus also has meaning — What kind of thing would be rejected by the source of all things that swallows all life?" the young Harmost asked the great usurper, pondering this conundrum.
-------------------------------------
I didn't have time to even scratch at the large number of prophecies or statements about the Traveler, from Archons like Zhongli saying the Traveler will live longer than Teyvat, or Ei saying the Traveler could have overridden the Cataclysm somehow, to Nahida saying they are a descender, to the Melusine philosopher's description about them swallowing the world, and the statement in the Traveler's own introduction about how basically the Traveler is some sort of god or has a god-like relationship with the fate of Teyvat. This latter especially almost seems on a beyond-Teyvat level of prophecy that perhaps even a Descender couldn't change. Or would that be to deny the Descender a choice?
The keeper is fading away; the creator has not yet come.
But the world shall burn no more, for you shall ascend.
