[Tool] 5☆ Rerun Estimation 🛠

> See also: [Tool] 4☆ Rerun Estimation

Never miss out on a 5☆ again!

Prepare your funds ahead of time!

✓ Good for: focused investment

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*archons typically rerun every 4 - 8 patches

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⚠️ Disclaimer: This calculation is done based on math + data on previously existing banner history.

Prediction Requests

Shenhe ❄️ Theory

I received a request to take on Shenhe from discord.

Since Shenhe’s banner has ever only run 1 time, let’s instead compare to banners with longest absent history: Kazuha.

But he didn’t go over the 1 year absent. So what does that mean for Shenhe?

Since Shenhe is the first ever 5☆ exclusive support (for 1 exclusive element; same class as Sara⚡️, Faruzan💨, Gorou🪨— but they’re all 4☆ instead), this puts her in a unique and completely different situation.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uDbMAP75JCmrk0K7kXPIbA2L_jgmyAE-YaR5Gq906IU/edit?u

Let's take a look at how miHoYo place their exclusive supports. It's right next to the DPS said characters are supposed to boost! Just like how Sara is always attached to Raiden's banner. Gorou to Itto's banner. And how likely Faruzan will always be attached to S̶c̶a̶r̶a̶m̶o̶u̶c̶h̶e̶'̶s̶ Wanderer's banner. Just who is Shenhe's supposed to attach to? There are a few options to choose: Ganyu, Ayaka, Tsaritsa. Ah, but this never happened before? Even long after any of these major characters made their return after Shenhe's first release (while the last name won't appear for many years to come).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kTAwV_L0yzypShhPYlwGvYyq4FAxtjHNHYP6eJjc7hw/edit?u

Based on these facts, we can get a grasp of when Shenhe can be rerunned: either beside Ayaka or Ganyu.

Ayaka got a banner extension back in 2.6, which basically just mean she took up a slot for being rerunned 2 times. Even if this 'double appearance' doesn't count, we should not be seeing her return at least before 1̶9̶ ̶J̶a̶n̶u̶a̶r̶y̶ ̶2̶0̶2̶3̶ (scratched, replaced with outfit instead) 19 October 2023.

Ganyu meanwhile, reappears every 12 months (originally), so her next reappearance should be around 9 September 2023.

I have also ever mentioned how eventually banners will be filled by mutliple reruns at once before. Is miHoYo waiting for a 2 year long period to pass first? Eh, there's actually 1 more character we've been teased with for as long as Genshin has been released, but never got to this day: Baizhu. But now that dendro has been released for a while now, he is supposed to come about any day now. So from 2 year delay, we've got a maximum of 3 years.

Let's also study Shenhe’s sales performance ⤴ She still ranked middle place even against latest newer banners, but the fact that Xiao was also without in his first-ever rerun after being absent for a year-long also played a part in this. So what's her true percentage? Based on pulls from Paimon.moe, we can estimate how audience originally perceived her ⤵ Roughly 1:2, so 1/3 of that $16,99 million is actually Shenhe, which leaves us with $5.66. If compared with other "first appearance" banners released this latest year, that's about 1:6 of Raiden and Nahida. Why would miHoYo waste time on smaller number when they've got so many roasters to pick on with such tightly-packed schedule? Of course they'll prioritize 5☆s with safer bet.

Suffice to say, when Shenhe to come back, you'd want to make every moment count because her 2nd rerun would have been even longer than now. Learn how to prepare / reserve primogems for your must-have targets with my guides.

Exclusive Supports Tracker

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Announcement: Incoming Future Tools

Tool projects in the works:

Predict Pull Drop

Freemogem Calculator 2.0

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