By earning deeper understanding through this guide, you will be able to:
☑ Feel more in control of your pulls
☑ Plan your spending properly in advance
☑ Able to anticipate future loses and wins
Though I have made several guides before to explain how this all works, this guide will focus more on taking real life example, analyze them, then make proper judgement on the next step as an account owner.
To make sure we cover all the bases, I have picked several different types accounts that represent different patterns:
□ account type #1: can soft pity & early pity, lose 50/50
□ account type #2: can soft pity, win 50/50
□ account type #3: hard pity & lose 50/50
I will walk you through each type. Each account type will be given equal opportunity for thorough analysis. For convenience's sake, all of these examples will be from "Character Banner".
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Account Type #1: can soft pity & early pity, lose 50/50
First off, an account type that has some pretty fair equal chance to win and lose, but can also early pity. If your pull history as a similar pattern to this one, let's see what can be observed. Special thanks to @patsyfor allowing me to use their pull history as example [emoji]
1) Raiden (20)
2) Diluc (73)
3) Kokomi (38)
4) Jean (77)
5) Childe (66)
6) Mona (76)
7) Hu Tao (81)
8) Diluc (83)
9) Eula (22)
10) Albedo (71)
11) Eula (8)
12) Jean (78)
13) Itto (50)
#1 Pattern: On / Off Take Turns
It almost always takes turns between "on-banner" and "off-banner", as can be seen by the highlighted text below:
1) Raiden (20)
2) Diluc (73)
3) Kokomi (38)
4) Jean (77)
5) Childe (66)
6) Mona (76)
7) Hu Tao (81)
8) Diluc (83)
9) Eula (22)
10) Albedo (71)
11) Eula (8)
12) Jean (78)
13) Itto (50)
At this point. The turns between on-banner and off-banner seem almost for sure.
#2 Pattern: Can Early Pity
Early pity situation on Raiden & Kokomi. Then repeats again on Eula & Eula, separated by 5 (more or less) soft pity. As can be seen by the highlights down below:
1) Raiden (20)
2) Diluc (73)
3) Kokomi (38)
4) Jean (77)
5) Childe (66)
6) Mona (76)
7) Hu Tao (81)
8) Diluc (83)
9) Eula (22)
10) Albedo (71)
11) Eula (8)
12) Jean (78)
13) Itto (50)
Analysis:
Judging from past pattern, it is likely that there will be 3 more rounds of soft pity to go through next, before they will be able to hit an early pity. (Prediction, a fairly good chance of happening.)
Overall, it is 743 pulls for 13 characters, about 57 pulls each, which is not bad at all.
Next Step:
If, let's say, this account wants to pull for a Shenhe next, then what do they have to prepare? How will knowing this existing pattern helps?
Soft Pity:
At this point, since it is already known that they will soft pity again in the next 3 rounds, and that they will have to lose 50/50, they will have to roughly prepare for 166 pulls, just to be on the safe side. (Number taken from 83, the largest pity, and then timed twice.)
Primogem Spending: ✧ 26,560 (for 1 Shenhe, and 1 Standard)
Account Type #2: can soft pity, win 50/50
This one familiar pattern is from yours truly. In here, I will breakdown how I use my pattern to prepare for Ayato or Baizhu [emoji] Do note I will be critical, even to my own.
1) Albedo (76)
2) Qiqi (65)
3) Venti (34)
4) Childe (25)
5) Zhongli (36)
6) Eula (75)
7) Raiden (79)
#1 Pattern: Can Win 50/50
Though the number has grown heavier since it first started, the 50/50 wins have been consistent for the past 4 times already. However, this doesn't always mean a good thing, as opposed to an account that can early pity even despite losing 50/50, as they surely have more Standard characters than mine (I still don't have Diluc or Keqing yet after almost 400 days playing).
1) Albedo (76)
2) Qiqi (65)
3) Venti (34)
4) Childe (25)
5) Zhongli (36)
6) Eula (75)
7) Raiden (79)
At the rate that pity count is going (which is growing larger and larger), it is likely I might have to hit +80 pity after this. It is important to take this growth into account once their banners are announced.
Primogem Spending: ✧ 12,800 (for 1 Ayato)
#2 Pattern: Losing 50/50 Reduces Future Pity
This one is a more rough prediction in the works. But if this can happen, losing 50/50 for once might not be so bad after all. I will have to prepare primo for 1 time losing at soft pity, plus for 1 early pity. (65 + 34 = 99 pulls).
Primogem Spending: ✧ 15,840 (for 1 Baizhu)
Account Type #3: hard pity & lose 50/50
This pattern essentially means you pay for full price, always and all the time. Though I have never seen an account that unlucky before, my brother did go through several Characters on full price that way [emoji]
1) Zhongli (90)
2) Qiqi (90)
3) Raiden (90)
4) Qiqi (90)
5) Raiden (73)
6) Diluc (51)
7) Hutao (12)
8) Albedo (89)
#1 Pattern: Always Full-Price
Since this account has more tendency, it is most advisable to conserve primogems and only pull when it has become completely necessary.
90 x 2 = 180 pulls.
Primogem Spending: ✧ 28,800 (for any character, every single time)
Q: Any pattern type I'm missing? Different from these? 🤔
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